Weekly Supply Chain Intelligence

Trade is no longer a neutral backdrop—it’s the main stage where policy, power, and technology collide. We unpack a week of shifts that redefine how global supply chains are built and defended, from India’s bold move into critical minerals to the UAE’s rise as a shaper of trade rules rather than just a logistics hub. If you’re planning capacity, negotiating suppliers, or mapping risk, these signals point to the next 12–24 months.

We dig into UNCTAD’s outlook for slower but positive growth in 2026 and explain why policy choices—protectionism, industrial strategy, sustainability rules, and data governance—now steer trade flows more than price. You’ll hear how nearshoring and friendshoring are reconfiguring value chains, where green technology and digital services create new upside, and why agility is becoming a competitive moat. We also break down the World Economic Forum’s message that volatility is structural, not episodic, and how leaders are turning resilience into a growth engine with multi-sourcing, digital visibility, and regionalized manufacturing footprints.

Electronics offers a frank reality check: lead times and inventories are improving, capacity is expanding, yet exposure to geopolitical flashpoints and policy uncertainty keeps the sector in “fragile stability.” We close with the UK’s tighter trade remedies on biodiesel and the WTO’s latest signals on merchandise and services growth, plus what executive sentiment says about investment and hiring in 2026. If you need a concise, expert pass at what matters this week in supply chains, this briefing gives you the context and the playbook.

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Chapters

• 0:00 Welcome And Weekly Briefing
• 0:56 India’s Critical Minerals Strategy
• 2:02 UAE As Trade Rule Shaper
• 3:05 UNCTAD Outlook And Structural Shifts
• 4:05 WEF: Volatility Is Structural
• 5:01 Electronics’ Fragile Stability
• 5:48 UK Tariffs And Defensive Policy
• 6:25 WTO Forecasts And Exec Sentiment
• 8:28 Wrap Up And Subscribe

Transcript

Tony Hines: 0:01

Hello, you're listening to Chain Reaction, all about supply chain advantage. I'm Tony Hines, and we've got a great show coming along in just a few moments, so stick around. Stay tuned, stay informed, and stay ahead with Chain Reaction. Subscribe to Chain Reaction, you'll be first to know when new episodes are, and you'll never miss an episode. Thanks for coming by today. Great episode. All about what's been happening in supply chains in the past week since you've been away. Well, we're going to take a look at global trade and supply chains this week again to see what's been happening. This is your weekly intelligence update on trade policy and supply chain strategy. India positions itself as a critical minerals powerhouse. India is accelerating its push to become a central player in the global critical minerals ecosystem, a shift that could reshape supply chains for batteries, electronics, and clean energy technologies. Recent government statements and new bilateral agreements signal a strategic pivot. India wants to move beyond being a major consumer of minerals to becoming a co-developer of upstream and midstream capacity. The key elements of this strategy include a long-term partnership with resource rich countries in Africa, Latin America and Australia, joint venture arrangements focused on refining, processing and value added manufacturing, and a sustainability first narrative, positioning India as a responsible alternative to China-centric supply chains. This is not just industrial policy, it's geopolitical positioning. As global competition for lithium, cobalt, nickel, and rare earths intensifies, India is making a bid to become indisposable. The United Arab Emirates signals its growing influence in global trade governance. At the World Economic Forum, the UAE made a clear case for its role as a stabilizing force in an increasingly fragmented trade environment. While many economies lean towards protectionism, the UAE is doubling down on free trade, open trade, flexible regulatory frameworks, and rapid deal making. Why this matters? The UAE has become a hub for east west trade flows, especially as shipping routes face disruption. It is emerging as a broker of new generation trade agreements, particularly with Asia and Africa. The message at Davos that agility and openness are competitive advantages, and this resonated with businesses navigating geopolitical uncertainty. The UAE is positioning itself not just as a logistics hub, but as a rule shaper in the next era of global commerce. UNCTAD forecasts slower but positive trade growth in 2026. UNCTAD's latest outlook suggests global trade will continue to grow in 2026, but at a slower pace than the post pandemic rebound years. The report highlights three structural forces reshaping trade flows rising protectionism and industrial policy, regulatory tightening, especially around sustainability and data, and a reconfiguration of global value chains with more near shoring and friendshoring. Despite the headwinds, UNCTAD sees opportunities in green technology, digital services and south south trade. The message is clear. Growth is still on the table, but it will be uneven and increasingly shaped by policy rather than pure market forces. The World Economic Forum warns supply chains have entered a new era of volatility. We discussed this in the previous episode about Davos. The World Economic Forum's latest supply chain briefing paints a stark picture. Volatility is no longer episodic, it's structural. Drivers in the new era include geopolitical fragmentation, industrial policy competition US, EU China, energy transition pressures, rapid technological shifts, and climate related disruptions. Three quarters of global business leaders now say resilience is a growth strategy, not a cost center. Companies are investing in multi-sourcing, digital visibility tools and regionalized production footprints. The takeaway supply chain strategy is becoming a board level discipline. Electronics supply chains are stabilizing, but they remain exposed. After several years of turbulence, electronics supply chains are showing signs of stabilization. Lead times have shortened, inventories are normalizing and semiconductor capacity is expanding. But the sector remains vulnerable to geopolitical flesh points in the Taiwan Strait, US China tech restrictions and other pinch points around the globe. Labor shortages in advanced manufacturing, policy uncertainty around export controls and subsidies. The industry is entering a phase of fragile stability. Now there's a phrase, better than crisis mode, but far from predictable. UK trade policy is tightening with new tariff measures. The UK has introduced new anti-dumping and countervailing duties on biodiesel imports from the United States and Canada, part of a broader trend towards defensive trade policy. This reflects a desire to protect domestic producers, alignment with global moves towards industrial policy, and a more assertive post-Brexit trade posture. Businesses operating in or exporting to the UK should expect more frequent and targeted trade remedy actions in the months ahead. And the final takeaways from this roundup global trade is entering a period defined by strategic competition, policy-driven realignment, and persistent supply chain volatility. Countries are racing to secure resources, rewrite trade rules, and build resilience, and companies must adapt just as quickly. If we unpick some of the highlights just a little bit, we can take a look at the WTO global trade outlook and some of the key forecasts that they've made. They talk about global merchandise trade growth going down from about 1% in 2025 to just half a percent in 2026. And they expect subdued recovery amid all the policy uncertainty. A lot of that policy uncertainty, of course, has been introduced by President Trump with his tariffs. And then we've got all the global services trade growth, and that's remaining around two to three percent. Digital services remain the strongest performer. And the major drivers of these changes in the forecast, of course, are geopolitics, energy, prices, inflation, and industrial policy. That seems to be a much stronger one in 2026. And guess what happened in 2026? We had a new president in the White House. Structural headwinds persist. So that's what's happening with the forecasts. And the executive sentiment, of course, is that they're expecting trade growth, the strong confidence remaining, despite all the macro uncertainty. And WTO trade growth of half a per cent, they're still optimistic. The executives, that is. That was based on a survey of three and a half thousand supply chain and logistics leaders. So there was still a feeling of ninety-four percent positivity out of that. So that's a quick catch-up on some of the major things happening around the globe in supply chains this week. Hope you've enjoyed the episode. Hope you've learned something new. I'll see you next time in the Chain Reaction podcast. Until then, take care. Bye for now. Subscribe to Chain Reaction, you'll be first to know when new episodes are out, and you'll never miss an episode.